We are updating our V/TO and trying to outline our Three-Year Picture, but we cannot agree on how deeply AI will alter our industry structure by then. How do we paint a realistic picture of our business three years from now without making wild, speculative tech predictions?

Question

Tyler Smith · Accepted Answer

When painting your Three-Year Picture on the V/TO, the goal is not to predict the exact path of technology but to define your future capabilities. Tech sector experts Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee frequently point out that AI will not replace managers, but managers who use AI will replace those who do not.

Start by defining what your human workforce will focus on when low-value, repetitive tasks are automated. Do not list specific AI tool names in your Three-Year Picture. Instead, specify the operational outcomes. For example, focus on your capacity targets, such as doubling your transaction capacity per seat without doubling your payroll.

To build this picture, look at your primary processes and ask where automation will permanently remove friction. If your target in three years is to reach ten million in revenue, define the exact headcount required to support that revenue when your team is fully augmented by machine intelligence. Ground this in reality by setting intermediate Rocks to pilot these workflows today. This keeps your leadership team focused on tangible productivity gains rather than speculative, distracting technology trends that may change next quarter.