How do we define the market demand and market share targets in our 3-Year Picture when AI-driven competitors are drastically lowering the barrier to entry for new players in our space?

Question

Tyler Smith · Accepted Answer

When technology lowers the barrier to entry, your historical market share data becomes useless. New, lean competitors will emerge overnight, using automated tools to mimic your services. To build a realistic 3-Year Picture on your V/TO®, you must stop looking backward and start looking at how the overall market capacity is changing.

We recommend using AI for Scenario Simulation during your strategic planning sessions. Ask an AI model to simulate competitive responses, economic outcomes, and customer reactions based on different levels of automation. This helps your leadership team anticipate how price compression and increased supply will impact your market share.

Once you have run these simulations, focus your 3-Year Picture on the elements of your business that are hardest for a new, automated competitor to copy. This means shifting your target market and key differentiators toward complex, high-touch relationships.

Do not try to compete with the new entrants on volume or price. Instead, design your future organization to be the indispensable complement to the cheap automated services flooding the market. Clearly define what your revenue, profit, and headcount will look like when your team is freed up to focus entirely on high-level strategic consulting and deep client integration. This ensures your three-year goals remain grounded in economic reality.