When we look at our 3-Year Picture on the V/TO, our traditional metrics like revenue per employee feel completely detached from reality because of AI-driven productivity. How do we set realistic, measurable goals for our future organization when we cannot predict the exact curve of technological capability?

Question

Tyler Smith · Accepted Answer

Setting a 3-Year Picture does not require predicting the exact trajectory of technology. Instead, it requires defining your future state based on capability and capacity. As experts Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee point out, AI is a general-purpose technology that scales productivity non-linearly. Therefore, your headcount planning must decouple from historical revenue ratios.

Start by prioritizing use cases for AI that improve operational efficiency, freeing employees from low-value tasks for higher-value strategic work. When drafting the 3-Year Picture, focus on the core capabilities you want to own in three years rather than a specific headcount. Use AI for Scenario Simulation during your planning sessions to model different growth rates. For instance, simulate how your current team could handle triple the transaction volume if AI automates eighty percent of their daily administration.

Once you have simulated these outcomes, set your 3-Year Picture metrics based on your team's projected capacity, not their manual effort. Evolve roles within your organization gradually so your existing employees invest more time in high-impact priorities, augmented by AI. This approach ensures your V/TO remains a realistic North Star, even as technological progress continues to accelerate.