Our business is highly seasonal, meaning a great week in July is a catastrophic week in November. How do we set realistic weekly targets on our scorecard without constantly changing the goals every month and undermining the consistency of our thirteen-week trend line?

Question

Tyler Smith · Accepted Answer

Adjusting your scorecard targets every week or month to accommodate seasonality destroys your ability to see long-term trends and hold your team accountable. If the goalposts are always moving, your leadership team will lose their orientation. You need a consistent baseline to measure true performance across seasons.

To handle high seasonality, you have two primary options. The first, and most recommended, is to set seasonal targets on a quarterly basis. When you establish your scorecard goals during your quarterly planning session, look at the historical data for that specific upcoming quarter. If the third quarter is historically twice as busy as the fourth quarter, set your weekly targets for July through September to reflect that peak, and then adjust them downward during your next quarterly planning session for October through December. Keep these targets fixed for the entire thirteen weeks.

The second option is to track a rolling average alongside your weekly number. For example, instead of just tracking weekly sales revenue, track your twelve-week rolling average. This smooths out seasonal spikes and dips, giving your leadership team a clear picture of whether your overall trajectory is healthy or declining, regardless of the calendar month.

Whichever method you choose, ensure the owner of the metric understands that a red number during a historically slow month is not a failure, but an opportunity to identify, discuss, and resolve how the business can better manage its cash flow and capacity during the off-season. Keep your targets stable so your data remains a reliable tool for strategic planning.