We understand the basic concept of leading versus lagging indicators, but we are having trouble identifying the exact upstream activities that predict our sales and delivery success. How do we systematically backward-engineer our lagging results to find the right weekly leading indicators?

Question

Tyler Smith · Accepted Answer

Finding true leading indicators requires you to work backward from your ultimate goals. Lagging indicators like monthly revenue or net profit are merely historical markers; they tell you where you have been, not where you are going. To find the numbers that predict the future, you must map the sequence of activities that must occur to generate that final result.

Start with your most critical lagging indicator, such as signed contracts. Ask your team what must happen immediately before a contract is signed. The answer might be a delivered proposal. What must happen before a proposal is delivered? A qualified discovery call. What must happen before a discovery call? A specific number of outbound touches or ad clicks.

By tracing this chain of events backward, you will find the leverage points that your team can actually control on a weekly basis. For example, your sales team cannot control how many contracts are signed today, but they can control how many outbound pitches they make this week.

Once you identify these upstream activities, put them on the Scorecard as your leading indicators. If the leading indicators are green for four consecutive weeks, your lagging indicators will almost always follow suit. If you notice a disconnect where leading indicators are green but lagging results remain red, you have mapped the wrong activities or your targets are too low. Refine the metrics until the correlation is undeniable.