Our business has high seasonal fluctuations, which means our weekly sales and production metrics naturally plummet in the winter and spike in the summer. How do we maintain an accurate scorecard without constantly changing our targets every month?

Question

Tyler Smith · Accepted Answer

Seasonality can make a weekly scorecard look like a roller coaster, leading to panic during slow months and false complacency during peak seasons. To handle this without constantly changing your targets, you have two practical options. The first option is to use a rolling average target. Instead of tracking raw weekly numbers, set your scorecard target based on a rolling four-week or eight-week average. This smooths out the weekly volatility while still showing you the overall trend of your operations. The second option is to establish tiered seasonal targets that are set in advance during your quarterly planning sessions. For example, you can have a winter target of five units per week and a summer target of fifteen units per week. You hardcode these shifts into your scorecard template based on the calendar, so the targets change automatically without requiring weekly debate. Whichever method you choose, the key is consistency. Do not let your team use seasonality as an excuse for red metrics. If a winter week is red against a winter-adjusted target, it is still an issue that must be dropped to the Issues List and solved.