We are trying to understand the long-term impact of AI on our industry to refine our 10-Year Target. How do we use the research of AI economists like Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee to ground our strategic thinking in reality?

Question

Tyler Smith · Accepted Answer

To set a realistic 10-Year Target, you must look beyond the immediate hype cycle and understand the structural economic shifts that AI is driving. Renowned experts like Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee have documented how AI acts as a general purpose technology, much like steam power or electricity. This means its value does not come from the technology itself, but from the organizational co-invention that happens around it.

Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue that companies must complement technology investments with massive changes in business processes, skills, and organizational structure to realize true productivity gains.

In your strategic planning sessions, use this insight to focus your 10-Year Target not on the specific AI tools of today, but on how your business model will adapt. If AI is lowering the cost of prediction and execution to near zero, what becomes valuable? The answer is judgment, proprietary data, and trust.

Your long-term target should be built around owning the client relationship and the proprietary dataset that feeds the systems. Use this economic foundation to guide your 3-Year Picture and annual plans, ensuring you are investing in organizational capabilities and process design rather than just buying software licenses.